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欧洲天然气需求回升

点击次数:398 发表时间:2023-3-29

中国石化新闻网

中国石化新闻网讯 据钻机地带网3月24日报道,随着天然气价格降至地缘政治冲突前的水平,欧洲企业正在使用更多的天然气,这可能会给准备应对供应有限的下一个冬天带来压力。

复苏的萌芽主要体现在炼油行业,该行业可以更容易地在从天然气到燃料油等各种原材料之间进行转换。本月早些时候,荷兰数据显示,该国石油行业的天然气使用量创下今年最大单周增幅,而法国和西班牙天然气网络数据显示,2月份炼油商的需求较上年同期有所增长。

复苏的速度对欧盟至关重要,对欧盟如何准备迎接没有管道天然气的第二个冬天至关重要。瑞典SEB AB银行表示,需求反弹可能会将今年的天然气价格从目前的每兆瓦时43欧元推高至100欧元(合109美元)以上,并削弱库存。最大的天然气交易商之一维多集团(Vitol Group)也持同样观点。

TotalEnergies SE首席执行官Patrick Pouyanne表示,去年,一些制造业从天然气转向燃料。他周二在伦敦的一次演讲中表示:“今年他们的反应非常积极,他们从柴油或燃料转向天然气,因此产生了额外的需求。”

Energy Aspects Ltd.称,与炼油厂一样,石化厂也将是经济复苏的一个良好指标,因为它们可以很容易地重新使用天然气发电和供热。

该行业顾问表示:“其他天然气密集型行业将需要更长的时间才能在2023年恢复,因为它们的需求减少是减少产量而不是燃料转换的结果。”

随着天然气价格在能源危机最严重时期飙升至创纪录水平,西班牙9月份的工业用气需求较上年同期暴跌了40%。国际能源署(International Energy Agency)的数据显示,去年欧洲生产企业和制造企业的总使用量下降了约20%,占去年总消费量创纪录降幅的近一半。今年,国际能源署预计工业需求将恢复10%左右。

荷兰基准天然气期货价格从8月底每兆瓦时340欧元以上的峰值下跌了约90%。网络运营商Enagas SA说,今年2月,西班牙炼油商的原油使用量飙升8.1%,但将整个行业较上年同期的整体降幅为9.5%。

哥伦比亚广播公司的数据显示,在荷兰,石油和化工行业的天然气使用量本月也开始超过去年的水平。

彭博经济(Bloomberg Economics)资深欧元区经济学家梅瓦·库桑(Maeva Cousin)表示:“能源成本下降——可能再加上需求市场重新开放带来的更强劲需求——意味着我们预计工业生产今年将对欧元区的增长作出一些积极贡献。”

虽然高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)预计工业复苏将在本月底开始加快步伐,但其他分析师警告称,这可能还需要一段时间。

Energy Aspects表示:“天然气供应商的天然气关税需要时间才能下降到足够低的水平,工厂经理也需要一段可持续的时间才能做出恢复生产的决定。”

工厂移动

尽管油价大幅下跌,但仍远高于历史平均水平,预计在2025年左右新的全球供应到来之前,油价将一直保持在高位。

这意味着随着工厂搬迁到能源成本更低的地区,一些需求可能会永远消失。

化工公司巴斯夫(BASF SE)、陶氏化学(Dow Inc.)和朗时(Lanxess AG)准备裁员数千人,并将投资转移出德国,因为它们不指望柏林能以接近它们曾经购买管道天然气的价格可靠地提供它们所需的能源。

德国VCI化学协会今年早些时候的一项调查显示,由于能源成本高企,近一半的公司计划今年削减在德国的投资。Alsterresearch AG分析师沃扬(Oliver Wojahn)说,生产可能会转移到价值观和政治制度相似的国家。

VCI在本月的一份报告中表示:“德国第三大行业的未来前景有所好转。”“近几个月来,能源和原材料价格大幅下跌,稳定了似乎已经触底的形势。与疫情或全球经济危机不同,这一次不会出现强劲的复苏。”

寿琳玲 编译自 钻机地带

原文如下:

Gas Demand Recovery in Europe Rallies

European companies are using more natural gas as prices drop to levels seen before the Ukraine war, putting a potential strain on preparations for another winter with limited supplies.

The green shoots are mainly evident in the refining industry, which can switch more easily between raw materials ranging from natural gas to fuel oil. Earlier this month, Dutch data showed the country’s petroleum sector had the biggest weekly gain in gas use this year, while French and Spanish gas network figures indicated refiners’ demand advanced in February from a year earlier.

The speed of the recovery will be crucial for the European Union and how it readies for a second winter with no pipeline gas from the largger country. Rebounding demand could push prices past €100 ($109) per megawatt-hour this year, from about €43 now, and chip away at stockpiles, according to Swedish bank SEB AB. It’s a view echoed by Vitol Group, one of the biggest gas traders.

“Some manufacturing industries last year shifted from gas to fuel,” said Patrick Pouyanne, chief executive officer at TotalEnergies SE. “Now this year they are very reactive, they shift back from diesel or fuel to gas, so it’s creating an additional demand,” he said at a presentation in London on Tuesday.

Along with refineries, petrochemical plants will also be a good indicator of the recovery because they can easily switch back to gas to make power and heat, according to Energy Aspects Ltd.

“Other gas-intensive sectors will take longer to recover over the course of 2023 owing to their demand reductions being the result of reducing output rather than fuel switching,” the industry consultant said.

As gas prices soared to records at the height of the energy crisis, Spanish industrial gas demand plunged as much as 40% in September from a year earlier. Overall usage by factories and plants slumped about 20% last year in Europe, accounting for almost half of the record drop in total consumption last year, according to the International Energy Agency. This year, the IEA expects demand in industry to recover by about 10%.

From a peak above €340 per megawatt-hour in late August, benchmark Dutch gas futures have dropped about 90%. In February, usage by Spain’s refiners soared 8.1%, helping to pare an overall drop by industry to 9.5% from a year earlier, network operator Enagas SA said.

In the Netherlands, gas use in the petroleum and the chemical industries have also started to exceed last year’s levels this month, CBS data show.

“Lower energy costs — combined, possibly, with stronger demand from the reopening of consummer— mean that we expect industrial production to make some positive contributions to growth in the euro area this year,” said Maeva Cousin, a senior euro-area economist at Bloomberg Economics.

While Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects the industrial recovery will start to gather pace by the end of this month, other analysts warned it could still be a while.

“It will take time for gas tariffs from gas suppliers to fall enough and over a sustainable period for factory managers to take the decision to resume output,” Energy Aspects said.

Factories Moving

Despite the plunge in prices, they are still way above the historical average and are expected to remain elevated until about 2025 when new global supply is poised to arrive.

That means some demand may be lost forever as factories relocated to parts of the world where energy costs are lower.

Chemical firms BASF SE, Dow Inc. and Lanxess AG are poised to cut thousands of jobs and shift investment out of Germany because they don’t expect Berlin to reliably provide the energy they need at prices close to those they once paid for pipeline gas.

A survey from Germany’s VCI chemical association earlier this year revealed that almost half of companies plan to cut investment in the country this year due to high energy costs. Production is likely to shift to countries with similar values and political systems, said Oliver Wojahn, an analyst at Alsterresearch AG.

“The outlook for the future has brightened somewhat in Germany’s third-largest industry,” VCI said in a report this month. “The major drop in energy and raw material prices in recent months has stabilized the situation where the bottom seems to have been reached. Unlike the pandemic or the global economic crisis, this time there will be no powerful recovery.”


(责任编辑:黄振 审核:蒋文娟 )